Wind Energy Scenarios by WindEurope and ENTSO-E

In September, WindEurope released its latest Wind Energy Scenarios 2030 Report. The European Wind Energy Association updates its capacity scenarios for 2030 every two years to reflect the latest market and policy developments in the EU. This involves surveying industry experts in every member state and analysing the potential conditions that would determine the deployment of wind energy, including repowered capacity, in the post-2020 period. In addition to describing three possible scenarios for wind energy capacity installations in 2030, the report also highlights several policy recommendations in order to advance the roll-out of wind energy in Europe.

© WindEurope


According to WindEurope’s Central Scenario, 323 GW of cumulative wind energy capacity would be installed in the EU by 2030, of which 70 GW would be offshore. That would be more than four times the offshore capacity installed at the end of 2016, and more than double the total wind capacity.

WindEurope’s High Scenario assumes favourable market and policy conditions including the achievement of a 35% EU renewable energy target. In this scenario, 397 GW of wind energy capacity would be installed in the EU by 2030, 298.5 GW onshore and 99 GW offshore. This would be 23% more capacity than in the Central Scenario and two and a half times more capacity than currently installed in the EU. Furthermore, with a deployment rate of 7 GW/year, the offshore wind industry would become fully competitive with new fossil fuel generation.

In the Low Scenario, however, there would be 256.4 GW of wind capacity in 2030, 207 GW onshore and 49 GW offshore.

The report also highlights the social and economic impacts of each scenario and recommends measures regarding policy and other issues required to deploy wind energy with a view to sustaining Europe’s technological leadership in wind.

Download WindEurope Scenarios 2030 Report

In addition to the WindEurope Scenarions, ENTSO-E has published the TYNDP (Ten-Year Network Development Plan) 2018 Scenario Report. The scenarios presented outline different possible paths towards a low-carbon energy system in line with EU targets. The following TYNDP 2018 scenarios cover the period from 2030 to 2040. They have been co-constructed with stakeholders representing, among others, the industry, NGOs, member states and regulators:

  • Sustainable Transition: Targets reached through national regulation, emission trading schemes and subsidies, maximising the use of existing infrastructure. (63 GW Offshore wind capacity by 2030; 95 GW Offshore wind capacity by 2040)
  • Distributed Generation: Prosumers at the centre – small scale generation, batteries and fuel switching - society engaged and empowered. (63 GW Offshore wind capacity by 2030; 95 GW Offshore wind capacity by 2040)
  • Global Climate Action: Full speed global decarbonisation, large scale renewables development in both electricity and gas sectors. (164 GW Offshore wind capacity by 2040)

Learn more about the ENTSO-E TYNDP 2018

During COP23 in November 2017, Ecofys published a report on the 2045 outlook and implications for offshore wind in the North Seas. On behalf of Tennet and Energinet, they investigated the magnitude of the capacity expansion required for offshore wind farms in the North Sea and other European waters (Baltic Sea, Irish Sea, Atlantic) to meet the Paris climate protection goals. According to their study, a total of 230 GW would have to be installed by 2045.

Download Ecofys study Translate COP21